COVID-19 Trends and Spatial Patterns for Missouri and the St. Louis Metro Area

This page illustrates the COVID-19 situation in Missouri and the Missouri portion of the St. Louis metro area, using new data sources starting June 1. Unless indicated otherwise, data are from USAFacts.org, which is used by the CDC and which is less raw than data from other sources, such as the Johns Hopkins center. It is, however, one day behind the Johns Hopkins data. Note that we also present data on deaths from the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services, which is arranged by date of death rather than the dates that the deaths were registered, making it a better indicator of trends. On the other hand, it is several days behind the more-raw data.  

Also, see our COVID-19 Commentary Page and our analysis of the distribution of COVID-19 by age.

For context, note that Missouri is one of the least-affected states in terms of cases. As illustrated in the map below, thirteen states have a lower rate of confirmed cases. In terms of deaths, however, Missouri's has not been as fortunate in that it has the 25th lowest rate of deaths per million. As illustrated further below, within Missouri, cases and deaths have been concentrated in the St. Louis area and among those aged 70 and older.

Reading the charts

 

What we're waiting to happen is for the curves showing accumulated deaths and cases to completely flatten, which would indicate that we are at the end of the pandemic. As you can see, we are not there yet, although the improvement in the situation is apparent in the charts of the 7-day changes deaths and cases. 


The good news is that, after three weeks of a phased reopening, Missouri has seen the weekly number of deaths continue to fall. Confirmed cases have ticked up, however, driven by wider testing and increases in cases in Jackson County, the state's second-largest county. Within the St. Louis metro area, the virus has been most prevalent in St. Louis city and county. Over the past two weeks the situation has improved in those counties, as well as in St. Charles and the outlying counties in the Missouri portion of the metro area. Most recently, the total number of cases is flat, partly reflecting wider testing. New cases per week are less than half their peaks in St. Louis city and county, while they are about one-ninth and one-seventh of their peaks in St. Charles and the outlying counties, respectively. 

Reading the maps

 

St. Louis County and St. Louis city have been, and remain, the state's epicenters for the pandemic. There are, however, pockets of cases and deaths around the state, often associated with outbreaks at meat-processing facilities. In addition, Jackson County has seen its number of confirmed cases rise recently.

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The John W. Hammond Institute for Free Enterprise
Lindenwood University

209 S. Kingshighway

St. Charles, MO 63301

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